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Xi Likely to Press Trump on Taiwan Arms Sales, Scholars Say

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US analysts Bonnie Glaser and Dennis Wilder expect Xi Jinping to raise Taiwan and arms sales when he meets Trump in Washington this week.

Chinese President Xi Jinping is likely to bring up Taiwan when he sits down with US President Donald Trump in Washington this week, two US analysts said on Monday, with American weapons sales to the island expected to top his list of grievances.

Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the Indo-Pacific program at the German Marshall Fund, a Washington-based think tank, said Xi would probably steer any discussion of Taiwan toward those arms transfers. In Xi's view, she said, the two leaders share an understanding that ties between their countries should rest on stable, constructive strategic footing, and that Washington should refrain from steps that erode that foundation.

"Xi Jinping would say that arms sales to Taiwan would undermine that understanding and inject greater friction into the relationship," Glaser said.

Dennis Wilder, a former director for China at the US National Security Council, offered a similar reading. He said Beijing would probably put the matter on the table and try to cast Taiwanese President William Lai as the party driving up tensions across the strait.

Trump, by contrast, is highly unlikely to bring up Taiwan himself, Wilder said. The US president regards the current arrangement as entirely satisfactory and sees no cause to alter it.

Should the topic come up anyway, Glaser said Trump would be wise to warn Xi against any military move on Taiwan and to back the preservation of the existing situation in the Taiwan Strait. She added that Trump should point out that the United States acts according to its own laws, as China does, and that the Taiwan Relations Act obliges Washington to supply the island with defensive weapons.

Japan's worries and the Takaichi meeting

Wilder said Japan may be feeling greater unease about the summit than Taiwan is. Tokyo's relations with Beijing are currently tense, and he expects Chinese officials to press Trump with complaints about Japan, among them claims of a resurgent "neo-militarism."

"The Japanese will be eager for reassurance that the United States remains very committed to Japan, and that even though the relationship with Beijing is improving, that it isn't at the expense of Japan," Wilder said.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is due to hold her own talks with Trump in New York on Tuesday.

Iran, tariffs and rare earths

Beyond Taiwan, Glaser said Iran is likely to rank near the top of Trump's own priorities. She said the US president may want to gauge how far Xi is prepared to go, including whether Beijing could nudge Tehran back into talks or cut its imports of Iranian crude oil. Washington, she said, is plainly working to pressure Iran into concessions.

Glaser also anticipates that tariffs, rare earth minerals and a proposed "Board of Trade" will feature in the conversation. Under a framework the two governments are drawing up, as much as US$30 billion worth of non-sensitive goods could see tariffs lowered.

Both analysts expect artificial intelligence to be discussed as well. The subject carries weight for each side, and at their meeting in May the two leaders agreed to set up a dedicated AI dialogue. Wilder said that while intense rivalry between the two powers will persist, they could still work together to curb the dangers of AI, including the risk that hostile actors or terrorists gain access to and misuse advanced systems.

Glaser said Trump might also raise the situation of Americans held in China, noting that he has taken personal credit for helping win the release of some detained US citizens.

Hopes for the AI dialogue and mineral shipments

Both experts said they hoped the meeting would yield movement on AI and on the supply of rare earths, a sector China dominates. That dominance leaves other economies exposed to Beijing's warnings that it could halt exports of the critical minerals.

Glaser said she wanted the two leaders to settle on the aims and scope of the planned AI dialogue, while Wilder likewise looked for headway in those discussions. Glaser also said she would like Trump and Xi to prolong the current tariff arrangement and to secure Chinese follow-through on its pledges, including on rare earth shipments.

Wilder said China had fallen short in delivering rare earths to the United States and voiced hope that Beijing would offer further commitments.

Trump Xi summit, Taiwan arms sales, Bonnie Glaser, Dennis Wilder, Taiwan Relations Act, US China relations, rare earths, William Lai

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